Past the Super Tuesday in US Election Primaries

I started to write a post with the title 'Ahead of the Super Tuesday...' because of what I would call a low-key epiphany that dawned on me regarding the shape of things to come. But, time is always a spoiler taking me to places,  keeping my hands full and keeping the world away from getting a glimpse of these important premonitions. Anyway, here I am....

Now that we are past the Super Tuesday, we all are witness to the fact that Mr. He Who cannot be named is amassing an almost unassailable momentum in One of two of the major parties' nomination battle in the USA. Yes, you heard me right! almost unassailable momentum!!! He is still far from that safe zone in terms of delegate count, but, boy! How amazingly he has adjusted his sail in the path of that 'wind of change'. Or, is it 'madness of change'!!!! I will let you decide.

This is probably one of those terrible times, when common people in their collective stupidity completely looses track. Now, many would argue somehow the people are always right in the end. Wrong! Fallacy!! Well, maybe most of the time. But, just like a game of chance, there comes once-in-a-generation moment, when people collectively make a blunder, price of which is dearer than a major earthquake. Examples are strewn all over history, I will not waste time by drawing parallels here. If you want, you can find easily. But, the funny part is politicians although generally divisive, bickering and prioritize self interest over all others have actually got sense of what terrible possibilities are afoot. Although generally more prone to making mistakes, politicians have actually got it right this time! Which can be seen in the more cautious way they are veering toward the crazy option or the slow pace of delegate count. But, the commoners? They are acting real cheap! As if they are bewitched like the kids of Hamelin! No amount of cautions, advice or lambasting is good enough to steer them from destruction. Like head strong kids, all advice to act otherwise are only fueling their speed downhill!

Someone can argue, who cares, let them face the consequence of their action. But, the problem is USA is the leader of the World. Whatever happens here impact the lives of other people, no matter whether they want it or not. Naturally the person who will lead this great nation (for at least 4 years) can cause irreversible changes to the lives of countless millions, with his or her action or inaction. So, the choice you are making or will make in primaries are not trivial decisions. Although some 'once-smart-doctors-now-politicians' think 4 years are a small enough time to do a test run on a political novice, but you should understand better. It is no time to play games. You still have time to reverse the trend, but only if you all collectively pull together; only if you decide to prove all skeptics like me wrong; and only if you decide to show that USA is the greatest nation on earth, because it has the greatest people on Earth!

Ahead of the Super Tuesday in US election primaries

15 March 2016 (as I started to draft the article on that day)

Yesterday,  two important things happened that will impact the lives of people in #Bangladesh for years to come. Let us talk about the first One that took place first.

Dr. Atiur Rahman, the Governor of the Central bank or the Bangladesh Bank as it was Christened, resigned from his post after 7 successful (disputed by many) years following the incidence of money being illicitly siphoned of the central bank reserve. That the money stolen was part of the reserve kept in US Federal Reserve Bank in New York is but a small anecdote. The actual incidence of stealing actually happened in early February, and the Bangladesh Bank people in their infinite wisdom manged to keep it secret from the other branches of the State for almost a month! This move, politically and administratively an error of horrendous proportion, probably cost the fellow his job. Nevertheless, it is how things unfolded in reality and by the time I am putting pen to paper, this Holywoodesque story captured the imagination of the country and to some extent that of some parts (banking & finance) of the world. So, why or how it happened is anybody's guess and subject to dozens of investigation. Therefore, I will conveniently bypass those questions (for you to be wiser from mainstream media) and focus on a more fundamental question.

Bangladesh Bank, which was formed in the immediate aftermath of the bloody liberation war (in fact, 16th Dec 1971 or the Victory day of Bangladesh is the official Birthday of Bangladesh Bank), many would argue, never really came out of the shadow of the Executive branch of the government. It was  directly and indirectly controlled by the ministry of Finance. Therefore, It came as no surprise that once the Bank got its first 'Independent thinking' Pilot in Dr. Atiur Rahman, there would be a host of powerful people who would hate the very idea of the central bank having its own strategy and a path to achieve those strategy. To be more specific, the bank under his leadership focused on bringing the un-banked poor (the vast majority of the populace who were mostly out of formal banking system) into the banking system. He understood early that the brick and mortal approach will itself not achieve his dream. Rather, Dr. Atiur aimed to do this by utilizing the phenomenal growth of mobile technology, through encouraging mobile banking even to the extent where he formulated regulation for motivating commercial banks to have mobile banking arms. He also implemented a '10 taka bank account' for the rural poor (an account for 10 cent only), that attracted praise and following from the Prime Minister of India himself. Did his approach work? According to a feature published in the Daily Star (23rd March 2015), these strategies brought in 55 million people into banking sector, with 25 million mobile banking accounts and 10 million '10 taka' accounts targeting farmers! Towards financial inclusion | The Daily Star Well, that should be called a success even by the most cynical. However, bringing people into the scion of formal banking in itself is not the end, rather it opens up opportunities and economic emancipation in many other ways (including, but not limited to influencing how expat workers choose to send money home!) that I think is beyond debate. Now, praising the erstwhile Governor is not the idea of this write up, rather, to focus on the issue of central bank independence. So, it was beyond doubt that the central bank was gradually taking a more autonomous form. But, why is it important for a central bank to have independent thinking?

Well, to answer in plain words, central banks are for people's economic right what judiciary is for people's moral and legal right. A balancing act against the all powerful Executive branch, preventing it from implementing vested agenda or policies with too narrow a focus or politically motivated. Central banks also have the research capability and know how regarding economic and monetary matters that departments with in executive branch are not likely to have. All in all, importance and necessity of central bank independence is unquestionable. Example???? Just look at the major and successful economies of the world and you will not see any detractors to this doctrine. There can be varying degrees to that freedom, with the system of USA allowing most freewill to it Federal Reserve Bank (ironically, from where this current debacle of Bangladesh central bank started causing all those dominoes to fall). Fate sometimes can work in miraculous way indeed! However, it's important for people of Bangladesh to not get blinded by the rage of loosing all those hard earned money to robbers. It will not be prudent in infinite hatred to the outgoing Governor forget all the good things happened due to having an free thinking economist in the helm of Bangladesh Bank. And, the worst thing would be to give a free reign to the executive branch to reestablish their blindfold control on the central bank and trust, given the slightest opportunity the vested groups will gleefully gobble up the chance. And, without even a polite thank you!

So, what should be your course of action? Stop taking part in the slanderous and often suicidal discussion centering on how incompetent the outgoing management of central bank was. Rather focus on how to carry on the good deeds forward.
(I took too much time on topic number one, so, the 2nd one will have to wait for the next post). Thank you.

Forced disappearances in Bangladesh: was it inevitable?

Weak judiciary, Paramilitary forces with magisterial power, Political leadership serving vested interests, Civil society and citizenry fragmented along party lines - Together, all these signal toward something ominous, something evil!

Democracy after all is nothing but yet another method of transferring power to govern. In Bangladesh, like many other developing and impoverished countries, the populace are too illiterate to understand the importance of strong institutions for establishing democracy. They love to vote but at the same time they identify political groups based on faces and not manifestos. This dichotomy means a generation of political leaders despite their appalling records and dubious reputation could prey upon the sentiment of the people to repeatedly return back to power. The military, like many other countries with similar blight, is the single most powerful group, where civil groups on most of the times are at each others' throat for realizing vested interests. This gives the military opportunity to grab state machinery to further enhance its political, social and economic clout.

In this backdrop, during the term of last BNP government, a paramilitary group was formed taking personnel from both military and police forces. "To improve the law & order situation" - was the much publicized reason behind. The force was further bolstered by formulating laws that give them virtual impunity. Much infamous extrajudicial killing was brought to the fore as a tool of maintaining order! The wider gentry despite the dark and ominous signals, chose to keep blind and clapped hands at the suppression of few known terrorists. The force got further reinforcement from home and abroad by ruthlessly putting down the common enemy home-grown Islamic terrorism. But, amidst the blur, everyone forgets to denounce the heavy handed approach that became their modus-operandi. People with known criminal records started to disappear only to be found as dead later on. Intermittently, there were a few apparently innocent ones who fell victim to the brutal machinery of state. But, no one except their close ones paid heed, as people accepted them as collateral damage! And, the disappearances and killings continued. Now, came a new turn to the event, when political figures from opposition block starts to disappear. After all, power is seductive and power without accountability is nothing short of a Frankenstein! So, everyone is now asking, who should be blamed!

Now, decide for yourself, was it inevitable????

A post from Oct 2011: Wimbledon Ladies' Champion 2011

Petra Kvitova has a difficult name to pronounce and If you are a critic, your criticism of the new Wimbledon Ladies' Champion will struggle to go beyond that. The 21-year old athlete from Czech Republic has the most amazing tennis skills. Her unusually accurate forehands and the ability to hit the widest angels of the court remind another Great of the bygone era, John McEnroe. Her opponent of the day, Maria Sharapova was completely flummoxed by the long and accurate returns that the new winner inflicted on the Russian's usual long serves. Apart from a brief period at the early phase of the 2nd set, Sharapova had no answer to the relentless accuracy of the 21 year old. Such was her dominance and maturity of her tennis that it is safe to proclaim that the sporting world has found a new hero and she has more than enough talent to win a few grand slams in her career.

On the more personal side of things, the new Champion is tall, slender, good looking and she does not grunt (you have to go quite a few years in the past to find another one)! But, the most amazing trait of the new Wimbledon queen is, she is completely cool under all the attention and her calmness resembles someone who knew her destiny beforehand. The great Martina Navratilova, herself from Czechoslovakia, and also Jana Novotna were present in the royal stand to inspire Petra; so was Anna Hathaway, leading the glamour parade that a final in Wimbledon can expect. However, at the end, it was the cool and confident tennis of the newly crowned 'queen' and her modest demeanor that will dominate the tennis headlines until the next Grand slam!

More banks than you need?

Recently the Central Bank of Bangladesh has declared their intention to issue licenses for new banks that, once issued, will almost double the number of commercial banks in a single stroke. The expressed reason has always been the fact that the majority of the country's population are outside the reach of formal banking channels. So, new banks will increase coverage as well competition in the financial sector. However, the latent motive can be something else as most of the licensees are leaders of the ruling party or their cronies. And, every indication is there to suggest these banks will target an over crowded segment of the populace. Although these do not surprise many, the important discussion is what this influx of new banks in a saturated market-segment will mean in the long run.

At present, there are 44 commercial banks with thousands of branches but almost all of them are concentrated in the urban population centers targeting professionals and business people within a narrow segment of the population. There is every indication that the new banks will target the same customers and share into the same capital base rather than creating new pies as promised by the Central Bank. Once the new ones start operating, competition in retail banking will be fierce prompting the risk of increasing percentage of bad loans. On the other hand a increasing portion of the capital base will be disbursed as consumer loans putting inflationary pressure on prices of consumer goods. At the same time, available finance for capital goods will shrink, negatively impacting industrial growth.

But, the gravest evil apparently evident in the pattern of government policies is the fact that distribution of wealth is becoming far more skewed toward the well-off section of the society. Be it the tax structure of the country, or awarding of government contracts, allocation of budgetary incentives or without-retribution-hijacking of people's money from capital market, it is always the cronies and extreme high end of the pyramid who are the beneficiaries. The weak justice system and lack of democratic institutions help to perpetuate the trend. And, the end result is a humongous gap in the wealth of the rich and poor that will shame even most capitalist of thinkers! 

What is life?

Once I thought of this world as a hunting ground, where I am the hunter and anything else is a prey! Later, I came to regard life as a Colosseum, where I am a gladiator fighting for my life. After that my conception of existence wavered between these two extremes, depending on the state of my mind at that particular time.

Although the allegories sound archaic they actually capture 2 of the most extreme perceptions of life, where everything else falls in between. Take, for example, the case of a 20-year old youth, who is young, feisty, deep in love with life. For that person, "nothing is impossible", 'sky is the limit' in its exact sense, and anything can be hunted with the right time & effort. The person will embody that spirit and try to live that philosophy in every aspect of life.

Now on the other hand, take the example of an older man of mid- 50s, with who life has been tough! For this person, hopes are hard to come by. Every road is fraught with demons and conspiracies, plotting his/her downfall. Every breath for this unfortunate soul is a struggle to survive!

So, what life actually is? which of the above thought process reflect life in its entirety? Is there really a single, all powerful answer to 'life' as a concept?

Let's continue our quest for finding the answers....

What is happening with Euro zone? (continued)

roughly one month ago the last post on this same topic was published -

Now that UK is keeping herself safely away from the Euro zone and French-German coalition is pushing for a more closely knit Euro 'State' (policy wise), one can not help but ponder the future. [Someone said a currency without a state can not sustain]. Looking at the strong commitment of big powers to save the Euro, it is likely that the current crisis will be warded off. But, at the same time there will be some irreversible changes in the European socio-political map. The Mainland  will move ever closer in terms of future policy with the exception of few 'rogue' states (who will fail to maintain the impending strong fiscal discipline to be imposed by the big two). However, here one must keep in mind the deep seated ethnic and national diversity among Euro citizens which are prominent through the national lines and can cause future separatist dissensions among small, disgruntled population groups, bringing future social unrest and rifts. But, the big scoop here is the increased self-imposed isolation of the UK from Euro zone. With the passing of current debt crisis, this divide along the English channel is supposed to get widen. So, it can pose interesting socio political questions in the future. Let's wait and see...

What do you think of the crisis and the outcome?